março 12, 2006
CABALISTICAMENTE
* Raio
A caminho do colapso...
A caminho do colapso...
Aqui há uns dois dias a TV deu a notícia de que o Economist tinha feito uma análise da economia mundial e, nessa análise Portugal seria, no ano corrente, o quarto país a contar do fim em termos de crescimento.
Isto é, pior do que Portugal (entre duzentos países) só as Seychelles, Guiana e Zimbabué.
O CIA Factbook, para 2005, deu um panorama um pouco melhor. De entre 214 países ou regiões, Portugal encontra-se a 14 do fim, em 200º lugar.
Depois de Portugal, além dos já referidos temos a Holanda, Itália, Costa do Marfim, etc.
A verificar-se a previsão do The Economist a nossa sitação, que já era má, tende a piorar.
E o que é que nós, cá em Portugal, dizemos a isto? Praticamente nada, a culpa é nossa que não nos soubemos adaptar à globalização ou que somos gastadores, ou que somos corruptos, etc.
Nestas explicações todas há sempre um ponto comum. A culpa é de qualquer coisa mal feita por nós.
É difícil manter esta teoria. A situação é tão má e, pior, nunca na sua história Portugal deve ter estado tanto tempo tão mal que tem de haver uma explicação global.
Quanto mais não seja porque os tais problemas que afectariam o nosso crescimento também afectam os outros, porventura em escala muito maior.
Sim, a explicação tem de ser muito mais abrangente, tem de ser que a estratégia de desenvolvimento que nós seguimos está errada, sim, que a estratégia de desenvolvimento baseada na adesão a tudo que é europeu não é a mais apropriada para as realidades nacionais.
Até à data apostou-se a fundo na adesão à CEE/CE/EU, ao Mercado Unico e à Moeda Unica (Euro).
Esta altura devia ser uma altura de balanço, uma altura em que desapaixonadamente se analisasse se estas adesões todas foram ou não benéficas para a economia portuguesa e se devia continuar no mesmo caminho.
Tudo indica que isto não irá ser feito.
Ainda hoje vem nos jornais e foi dito na rádio que Portugal foi o país que menos beneficiou com o Euro e apontam-se para este falhanço as más políticas orçamentais.
Ora, ainda antes da adesão ao Euro foram publicados documentos, até pela Comissão Europeia, que indicavam que Portugal seria o país que menos beneficiaria com o Euro. Li mesmo um estudo de um Director do Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (francês) que chama a atenção de um curioso paradoxo, o de que a oposição ao Euro era mais forte nos países que mais beneficiariam com o Euro (Alemanha, Aústria) e mais fraca nos países que não tinham nada a ganhar com o Euro (Portugal, por exemplo).
E é isto que está a acontecer, a política da integração Uber Alles está a destruir a economia portuguesa. É necessário parar imediatamente com ela.
Mas o problema é outro, quem é que o irá fazer? Quais serão os políticos e economistas com coragem para nos dizer desculpem lá, à malta, enganamo-nos e com o nosso engano pusemos o país de pantanas...
Para termos uma pequena ideia do que nos irá acontecer podemos ver o que aconteceu à Argentina.
A Argentina praticamente dolarizou o país prendendo o Peso argentino ao dólar.
O cambio era fixo, as conversões peso-dólar, dólar-peso era legais e fáceis e as taxas de juro eram as do dólar.
No princípio foi um sucesso e os políticos e economistas que lançaram este sistema foram largamente aclamados. Depois veio o caos e ao fim de dez anos a economia implodiu. Felizmente a Argentina (ao contrário de Portugal) trabalhou sempre com rede mantendo o peso em circulação. Assim conseguiu desvalorizar o Peso e acabar com a dolarização da economia. Isto aconteceu há uns quatro anos. Actualmente a Argentina tem a sua economia a subir a 8,2% ao ano e encontra-se, na tabela do Cia Factbook, a par de Macau num 17º lugar.
Será que teremos de esperar pelo colapso da nossa economia para voltarmos a progredir ou então podemos evitar esse colapso começando já a alterar a desastrada estratégia de integração europeia que temos seguido?
O que os governos e governantes têm feito, ao longo dos anos é um chorrilho de disparates... tal como o é este artigo! O caminho não é por ali nem por aqui. Tudo isto é absurdamente falacioso e retórico, em nada pode contribuir para resolver os nossos problemas. Francamente, eu não sei se haverá que "repelir" algumas exigências da UE, para resolver os nossos problemas. É possível, é muito provável. O que sei é que eles (os problemas) não se resolvem com especulações monetárias. Este tipo de "críticas" e de alternativas são, afinal de contas, parte (importante) dos nossos problemas e de eles se arratarem há séculos, não são nem podem ser, parte da solução, que não passa por este tipo de absurdos. De absurdos estamos todos fartos e têm-nos saído muito caros. Os nossos problemas resolvem-se (só se podem resolver) com estratégias NOSSAS, adequadas à nossa realidade. Copiar os outros é falta de imaginação (e de nível intelectual) e é o que se tem feito ao longo dos séculos, com os resultados que estão à vista.
Mas este tipo de artigos são um bom meio para dificultar a resolução dos nossos problemas...
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